悉尼大学:中国对澳投资骤减36%!早就该全面公正地讨论国家利益了

04-15 62 29729 yzy86
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Chinese investment in Australia fell 36% in2018, to A$8.2 billion (US$6.2 billion) from A$13 billion (US$10 billion) in2017, according to research by KPMG and the University of Sydney BusinessSchool.

根据毕马威会计事务所和悉尼大学商学院的研究,中国对澳大利亚的投资在2018年下降了36%,从2017年的130亿澳元(100亿美元)降至82亿澳元(62亿美元)。

This is despite Chinese investors stillgenerally regarding Australia as safer and more attractive than most othercountries. So 2018 need not be a turning point. But it is cause for reflection.

尽管中国投资者总体上仍然把澳大利亚看成比大部分其他国家更安全更有吸引力,却仍出现了这种情况。



Chinese direct investment to Australia byvalue 2007–2018 (US$ million). KPMG/Sydney University database, Author provided(No reuse)

(图解:以美元计的中国对澳直接投资)

Discussion about Chinese investment inrecent years has been dominated by political and security concerns. Theseconcerns need to be balanced by the national interest in economic prosperity.Chinese investment creates jobs, increases export opportunities and deepensrelations with our most significant trade partner.

近些年关于中国投资的讨论一直被政治和安全关切支配着。而这些关切需要由经济繁荣中蕴藏的国家利益来平衡。中国的投资创造出新的工作机会,增加了出口机会,也深化了和我们最重要贸易伙伴间的关系。

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The only sector where investment did notfall was health care, where investment more than doubled to A$3.4 billion. Thismade health care the biggest investment sector, attracting 41.7% of all Chinesemoney, relegating commercial real estate (36.7%) to second place.

唯一一个投资没有下降的部门是医疗保健,对其的投资增加了一倍还多,达到34亿澳元。这就使医疗保健成为投资最多的领域,吸引了全部中国资金的41.7%,把商业地产(36.7%)挤到了第二的位置。



Chinese direct investment in Australia byIndustry in 2018 (percentage of total). The KPMG/Sydney University database,Author provided (No reuse)

(图解:2018年中国对澳直接投资中各产业占比,医疗保健、商业地产和能源产业分别位居前三位)

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In the United States, Chinese investmentfell 83% to US$4.8 billion from US$29 billion in 2017. In Canada, it fell 47%to US$3.4 billion from US$6.2 billion in 2017.

在美国,中国的投资比2017年下降了83%,从290亿美元跌到了48亿美元。在加拿大则下降了47%,从2017年的62亿美元跌至34亿美元。



Accumulated Chinese investment inAustralia, US and EU from 2014 to 2018 (US$ billion). KPMG & University ofSydney, Author provided (No reuse)

(图解:毕马威和悉尼大学提供的2014-2018年中国对澳大利亚、美国和欧盟的累计投资比较)

Balancing competing concerns

平衡相互悖反的关切

Australian governments, corporations andprofessional advisers need to consider what types of Chinese investments andinvestors are desired and actively welcome in Australia.

澳大利亚政府、企业和专业顾问有必要考虑的是:在澳大利亚,哪些类型的中国投资和投资者是急需和受到积极欢迎的。

Our report points to areas where Chineseinvestment is in Australia’s national interest and benefits the globalintegration and competitiveness of Australian industries.

我们的报告指出了一些地区,在那里中国投资符合澳大利亚的国家利益,并有益于全球一体化乃至澳大利亚产业的竞争力。

Health care is a key example.

医疗保健是一个关键的例子。



Chinese investment in Australian healthcare sector (A$ million). The KPMG/Sydney University database, Author provided(No reuse)

(图解:以澳元计的中国对澳大利亚医疗保健领域的投资)

Chinese investment in health care companieshas both provided capital for innovation and facilitated entry into the Chinesemarket.

中国对医疗保健公司的投资提供了创新所需的资金,并帮助其打入中国市场。

Take the Chinese private equity firm CDHbuying Sirtex Medical Ltd for A$1.9 billion. Sirtex is an Australian medicaldevice company with a treatment for liver cancer. Its acquisition enablesexpansion into China, which accounts for more half of the global incidence ofliver cancer.

就拿以19亿澳元收购了思泰医疗有限公司的中国的私营股权投资公司CDH(鼎晖投资)为例。思泰是一家澳大利亚医疗设备公司,掌握着肝癌的疗法。它被收购使其能够扩张到中国,而中国占到全球肝癌发病的一半以上。

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At a time of global uncertainty, Australianpoliticians, bureaucrats, business leaders, educational organisations andothers must work quietly and respectfully with their Chinese counterparts toallay community concerns and consolidate Australia’s reputation as a welcomingand proactive partner.

身处一个全球不确定性涌动的时代,澳大利亚的政治家、官僚、商界领袖、教育组织和其他主体必须低调且带着尊重与他们的中国同行们合作,以缓和社会的种种关切,并巩固澳大利亚身为受欢迎且积极主动的合作伙伴之声誉。
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1、Does China createjobs in Australia? I would think China takes jobs from Australia and puts themin China.

中国会在澳大利亚创造工作机会吗?我会觉得是中国从澳大利亚抢走了工作并将其转移到了中国。

We now sell low value produce to China suchas cattle and coal, and import high value produce such as cars and computersfrom China.

现在,我们是把低价值产品卖给中国,比如牛和煤炭,并从中国进口高价值产品,比如汽车和电脑。

There are an estimated 60,000 factories inthe US that closed down since China joined the WTO, and a significant number wouldhave closed in Australia also. I can remember a segment on TV where the lastremaining toy factory in Australia closed down, and almost everything inside ahouse is now imported from China.

据估计,自中国加入世贸组织以来,美国关停了6万家工厂,在澳大利亚也会有大量被关停。我还记得电视上出现过一个片段,澳大利亚仅存的最后一家玩具工厂关门了,而且如今一栋房子里几乎所有的东西都进口自中国。

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(回复2)I know Trump has made it fashionable to blame China for current USeconomic difficulties, but it was the US who backed the global free trade pushand demanded the world go neo-liberal and had the GFC contagion which spreadworldwide.

我知道,特朗普因为现阶段美国经济困境,已经把指责中国变成了时尚,但支持推进全球自由贸易的却是美国,还强求全世界走新自由主义道路,更让金融危机蔓延全球。

In contrast for Australia the developmentof China has been a boom. Why, theliberals have even claimed that it was China, not labor’s fiscal spend, whichsaved Australia from the full force of the GFC.

相比澳大利亚,中国一直都在急速发展。为什么呢,自由主义者们甚至断言过,把澳大利亚从险恶的全球金融危机中拯救出来的是中国,而不是对劳工的财政支出。

It is important for Australia to keep onthe hop and not be a one export market dependent. As for low wages and casualisation, and jobinsecurity, Australia seems to be getting better and better at that littleexercise all by herself.

对澳大利亚来说,重要的是保持干劲而不要变成一个依赖出口市场的国家。至于低薪资和临时工以及职业不安全感这些方面,澳大利亚独立处理这些似乎是越来越顺手了。

2、Perhaps the authorsshould read the news headlines? If the price of the investment is Chinesediplomats interfering in local councils then we don’t want them at any price.

也许作者应该读读新闻大标题?如果得到这些投资的代价是中国外交官干涉地方市政委员会,那么无论开出多高的价我们都不要。

(回复1)I agree, Jock. If the priceof Chinese investment in Australia is the totalitarian Chinese government’sinterference in our political and social affairs, we may need to be prepared totake some economic pain if we ‘push back’ against such interference.

我同意。如果中国对澳投资的代价是极权政府干预我们的政治和社会事务,我们要是想“击退”这种干预,可能我们就需要准备好承受一些经济阵痛。

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3、Maybe Australianpoliticians should be concentrating on how to encourage Australian ownedbusinesses employing Australian citizens to flourish. Instead we seem to havelazy politicians simply selling out as much of Australia as they can to foreigninterests, and importing more of everything, while not believing in science andexpert opinion, a recipe for even larger economic problems for Australia’sfuture. Keeping one of the highest net immigration rates of any developedcountry is also simply masking the true state of the Australian economy.

也许澳大利亚政治家应该聚焦于鼓励澳大利亚企业雇佣澳大利亚公民,以资繁荣。但情况正相反,似乎我们的那些懒人政客们只是尽可能多地把澳大利亚出卖给外国利益集团,然后更多地进口一切,同时还不相信科学和专家的见解,不相信给澳大利亚未来更严重的经济问题开出的处方。澳大利亚在所有发达国家中保持着最高的移民净迁入率之一,而这也掩盖了澳大利亚经济的真实状况。

4、In the UnitedStates, Chinese investment fell 83% to US$4.8 billion from US$29 billion in2017. In Canada, it fell 47% to US$3.4 billion from US$6.2 billion in 2017. Tomy mind this is the key sentence, and begins to put the drop in someperspective in terms of where the investment is going and where it isn’t.Australia is not doing too badly, with a drop of 36%. A pattern of earlierfluctuations is also important.

“在美国,中国的投资比2017年下降了83%,从290亿美元跌到了48亿美元。在加拿大则下降了47%,从2017年的62亿美元跌至34亿美元。”对我而言这是关键句,而且能就此开始用投资去向哪里以及没有去向哪里来归因。澳大利亚的表现并没有那么糟,(相比美国)只下降了36%。过往的波动模式也是很重要的。

What would also be useful, however, is someinformation on 1) where Chinese investment is being re-concentrated, and 2) towhat extent China’s outward investment has dropped across the board.

然而,同样很有用的是下列方面的一些信息:
1)当下中国的投资正再次集中于何处
2)中国对外投资的全面下降到了什么程度

For example, has the appearance of theAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank (set up in 2015 and based in Beijing)shifted investment focus? Ditto the Belt and Road Initiative. (And it might gethard to separate the two?)

比如说,亚洲基础设施投资银行(2015年建立,总部位于北京)是否已经出现了转移投资重点的情况?一带一路倡议也以同理考察。(撇清这两者可能会很困难?)

This larger context could mean 1) there isvery little Australia can do to influence the situation, and 2) the pool ofChinese investment that can be attracted in Australia’s direction is not goingto return to previous levels.

这个更大的背景可能意味着:
1)想要影响这种大势,澳大利亚能做的极少,
2)能被吸引到澳大利亚这个方向上来的中国的投资资金回不到先前的水平了。

If “national interest” is defined in termsof matters where a nation can actually have an influence or make a difference,and if China’s overseas investment is in the process of locking into newarrangements, then we might need some thinking “outside the box” rather thanagonising over balance sheets.

如果“国家利益”是由一国能拥有真正的影响力或带来真正的改变来定义的,而且如果中国的海外投资正处在一个受困于新安排的青黄不接过程中,那我们可能需要“跳出固有的思维模式”,而不是为资产负债表而烦恼。

5、“At a time of globaluncertainty, Australian politicians, bureaucrats, business leaders, educationalorganisations and others must work quietly and respectfully with their Chinesecounterparts to allay community concerns and consolidate Australia’s reputationas a welcoming and proactive partner.” This is reminiscent of Orwell. Here ismy translation.“At a time of global uncertainty, Australian politicians,bureaucrats, business leaders, educational organisations and others must workcovertly and sub-ordinately with their Chinese economic masters to suppresslegitimate community concerns and consolidate Australia’s reputation with ourChinese masters as a sycophantic partner.”

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Overall, if the skills, know-how, andtechnology can be developed locally, the federal government should use fiscalpolicy and industry policy to make it happen. Fiscal policy and industrypolicy, combined with trade controls and capital controls where appropriate,are the most potent policy levers that the national government has to increasethe nation’s productivity level and guarantee that the productivity gains raiseeverybody’s living standards, not just the wealth and power of a few.

总的来说,如果技能、秘诀和技术能在本地开发出来,联邦政府就应该利用财政和产业政策来使其成为现实。财政和产业政策连同适当的贸易和资本管制,是最强有力的政策杠杆,国家政府必须提升本国的生产力水平,并保证生产力的增加提升了所有人的生活水平,而不只是少数富人权贵。
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