美媒:与中国开战? 战争已经开始了!B

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Technological Warfare

技术战争

As suggested by America’s trade demands, Washington’s intent is not only to hobble China’s economy today and tomorrow but for decades to come. This has led to an intense, far-ranging campaig to deprive it of access to advanced technologies and to cripple its leading technology firms.

正如美国的贸易要求所暗示的那样,华盛顿的意图不仅是在今天和明天阻碍中国经济,而且是在未来几十年里。这导致了一场激烈的、范围广泛的运动,目的是剥夺中国获得先进技术的渠道,削弱其领先的技术公司。

Chinese leaders have long realized that, for their country to achieve economic and military parity with the United States, they must master the cutting-edge technologies that will dominate the twenty-first-century global economy, including artificial intelligence (AI), fifth-generation (5G) telecommunications, electric vehicles, and nanotechnology. Not surprisingly then, the government has invested in a major way in science and technology education, subsidized research in pathbreaking fields, and helped launch promising startups, among other such endeavors — all in the very fashion that the Internet and other American computer and aerospace innovations were originally financed and encouraged by the Department of Defense.

中国领导人早就意识到,为了实现与美国在经济和军事上的平等,他们必须掌握主导21世纪全球经济的尖端技术,包括人工智能(AI)、第五代电信(5G)、电动汽车和纳米技术。随之而来的,政府在科学和技术教育方面投入了大量资金,资助了开拓性领域的研究,并帮助启动了有前途的初创企业,以及其他类似的努力——所有这些都是以美国国防部最初资助和鼓励互联网和其他美国计算机和航空航天创新的方式进行的。

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Certainly, given what’s publicly known about Chinese cybertheft activities, it’s reasonable for American officials to apply pressure on Beijing to curb the practice. However, the Trump administration’s drive to blunt that country’s technological progress is also aimed at perfectly legitimate activities. For example, the White House seeks to ban Beijing’s government subsidies for progress on artificial intelligence at the same time that the Department of Defense is pouring billions of dollars into AI research at home. The administration is also acting to block the Chinese acquisition of U.S. technology firms and of exports of advanced components and know-how.

当然,鉴于公众对中国网络盗窃活动的了解,美国官员向北京施压以遏制这种行为是合理的。然而,特朗普政府阻碍该国技术进步的努力也旨在完全合法的活动。例如,白宫试图禁止中国政府为人工智能进展提供补贴,与此同时,美国国防部正在国内投入数十亿美元用于人工智能研究。美国政府还采取行动,阻止中国收购美国技术公司以及向其出口先进部件和专有技术。

In an example of this technology war that’s made the headlines lately, Washington has been actively seeking to sabotage the efforts of Huawei, one of China’s most prominent telecom firms, to gain leadership in the global deployment of 5G wireless communications. Such wireless systems are important in part because they will transmit colossal amounts of electronic data at far faster rates than now conceivable, facilitating the introduction of self-driving cars, widespread roboticization, and the universal application of AI.

在最近成为头条新闻的这场技术战争中,华盛顿一直在积极寻求破坏中国最著名的电信公司之一华为在全球5G无线通信部署中的领导地位。这类无线系统之所以重要,部分原因在于它们将以比现在想象的快得多的速度传输大量电子数据,促进自动驾驶汽车的引入、广泛的机器人化以及人工智能的普遍应用。

Second only to Apple as the world’s supplier of smartphones and a major producer of telecommunications equipment, Huawei has sought to take the lead in the race for 5G adaptation around the world. Fearing that this might give China an enormous advantage in the coming decades, the Trump administration has tried to prevent that. In what is widely described as a “tech Cold War,” it has put enormous pressure on both its Asian and European allies to bar the company from conducting business in their countries, even as it sought the arrest in Canada of Huawei’s chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, and her extradition to the U.S. on charges of tricking American banks into aiding Iranian firms (in violation of Washington’s sanctions on that country). Other attacks on Huawei are in the works, including a potential ban on the sales of its products in this country. Such moves are regularly described as focused on boosting the security of both the United States and its allies by preventing the Chinese government from using Huawei’s telecom networks to steal military secrets. The real reason — barely disguised — is simply to block China from gaining technological parity with the United States.

作为仅次于苹果的全球智能手机供应商和主要电信设备生产商,华为一直寻求在全球5G适配竞争中占据领先地位。特朗普政府担心,这可能在未来几十年给中国带来巨大优势,因此试图阻止这种情况发生。在这种被广泛称为“技术冷战”的情况下,美国对其亚洲和欧洲盟友施加了巨大压力,要求它们禁止华为在它们的国家开展业务,尽管美国在加拿大寻求逮捕华为首席财务官孟万洲,并以诱骗美国银行协助伊朗公司(违反华盛顿对该国的制裁)的罪名被引渡到美国。对华为的其他攻击也在进行中,包括可能禁止其产品在美国的销售。这些举措通常被描述为通过防止中国政府利用华为的电信网络窃取军事机密,加强美国及其盟友的安全。真正的原因——几乎毫不掩饰——只是为了阻止中国在技术上与美国平起平坐。

Cyberwarfare

网络战

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Diplomatic and Military Coercion

外交及军事压迫

Completing the picture of America’s ongoing war with China are the fierce pressures being exerted on the diplomatic and military fronts to frustrate Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions. To advance those aspirations, China’sleadership is relying heavily on a much-touted Belt and Road Initiative, a trillion-dollar plan to help fund and encourage the construction of a vast new network of road, rail, port, and pipeline infrastructure across Eurasia and into the Middle East and Africa. By financing — and, in many cases, actually building — such infrastructure, Beijing hopes to bind the economies of a host of far-flung nations ever closer to its own, while increasing its political influence across the Eurasian mainland and Africa. As Beijing’s leadership sees it, at least in terms of orienting the planet’s future economics, its role would be similar to that of the Marshall Plan that cemented U.S. influence in Europe after World War II.

为了完善与中国这场战争的战略版图,美国在外交和军事战线上施加强烈压力,以挫败北京的地缘政治野心。而为了实现这些愿望,中国领导人正在大力依靠备受吹捧的“一带一路”倡议,这是一项数万亿美元的计划,旨在资助和鼓励建设横跨欧亚大陆、进入中东和非洲的庞大的公路、铁路、港口和管道基础设施新网络。通过为此类基础设施提供资金——在许多情况下,甚至是实际建设——北京方面希望,在增强其在欧亚大陆和非洲的政治影响力的同时,将许多遥远国家的经济绑在一起,让这些国家离中国越来越近。在中国领导层看来,至少在为地球未来经济指明方向方面,中国的角色将类似于二战后巩固美国在欧洲影响力的马歇尔计划。

And given exactly that possibility, Washington has begun to actively seek to undermine the Belt and Road wherever it can — discouraging allies from participating, while stirring up unease in countries like Malaysia and Ugandaover the enormous debtsto China they may end up with and the heavy-handed manner in which that country’s firms often carry out such overseas construction projects. (For example, they typically bring in Chinese laborers to do most of the work, rather than hiring and training locals.)

考虑到这种可能性,华盛顿已经开始尽可能地去破坏一带一路,阻碍盟国的参与,同时激起了像马来西亚和乌干达这样的国家对他们可能会遭遇到的中国巨额债务的不安,以及这个国家的公司经常以高压手段在海外进行这样的建设项目。(例如,他们通常会引进华工来做大部分工作,而不是雇佣和培训当地人)

“China uses bribes, opaque agreements, and the strategic use of debt to hold states in Africa captive to Beijing’s wishes and demands,” National Security Advisor John Bolton claimed in a December speech on U.S. policy on that continent. “Its investment ventures are riddled with corruption,” he added, “and do not meet the same environmental or ethical standards as U.S. developmental programs.” Bolton promised that the Trump administration would provide a superior alternative for African nations seeking development funds, but — and this is something of a pattern as well — no such assistance has yet materialized.

美国国家安全顾问博尔顿去年12月在一篇有关美国对非洲政策的演讲中称:“中国利用贿赂、不透明的协议以及战略上利用债务,迫使非洲国家屈从于中国的意愿和要求。”“它的投资项目充斥着腐败,”他补充说,“不符合美国发展项目的环境或道德标准。”博尔顿承诺,特朗普政府将为寻求发展资金的非洲国家提供了一个更好的选择,这也是一种模式,但是目前这种援助还没有成为现实。

In addition to diplomatic pushback, the administration has undertaken a series of initiatives intended to isolate China militarily and limit its strategic options. In South Asia, for example, Washington has abandoned its past position of maintaining rough parity in its relations with India and Pakistan. In recent years, it’s swung sharply towards a strategic alliance with New Dehli, attempting to enlist it fully in America’s efforts to contain China and, presumably, in the process punishing Pakistan for its increasingly enthusiastic role in the Belt and Road Initiative.

除了外交上的阻挠,美国政府还采取了一系列旨在军事上孤立中国、限制其战略选择的举措。例如,在南亚,华盛顿放弃了过去在与印度和巴基斯坦关系中保持大致平等的立场。近年来,它迅速转向与新德里结成战略联盟,试图让其完全参与美国遏制中国的进程,并可能在这个过程中惩罚巴基斯坦在“一带一路”倡议中扮演的日益积极的角色。

In the Western Pacific, the U.S. has stepped up its naval patrols and forged new basing arrangements with local powers — all with the aim of confining the Chinese military to areas close to the mainland. In response, Beijing has sought to escape the grip of American power by establishing miniature bases on Chinese-claimed islands in the South China Sea (or even constructing artificial islands to house bases there) — moves widely condemned by the hawks in Washington.

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A Long War of Attrition

长期消耗战

As Admiral Davidson suggests, one possible outcome of the ongoing cold war with China could be armed conflict of the traditional sort. Such an encounter, in turn, could escalate to the nuclear level, resulting in mutual annihilation. A war involving only “conventional” forces would itself undoubtedly be devastating and lead to widespread suffering, not to mention the collapse of the global economy.

正如戴维森上将所言,与中国持续冷战的一个可能结果可能是传统意义上的武装冲突。这样的冲突反过来可能升级到核战,导致相互毁灭。一场只涉及“常规”力量的战争本身无疑是毁灭性的,会导致广泛的灾难,更不用说全球经济的崩溃。

Even if a shooting war doesn’t erupt, however, a long-term geopolitical war of attrition between the U.S. and China will, in the end, have debilitating and possibly catastrophic consequences for both sides. Take the trade war, for example. If that’s not resolved soon in a positive manner, continuing high U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will severely curb Chinese economic growth and so weaken the world economy as a whole, punishing every nation on Earth, including this one. High tariffs will also increase costs for American consumers and endanger the prosperity and survival of many firms that rely on Chinese raw materials and components.

然而,即使一场枪战没有爆发,美国和中国之间的长期地缘政治消耗战最终也会给双方带来破坏性的、可能是灾难性的后果。以贸易战为例。如果不尽快以积极的方式解决这一问题,美国继续对中国进口商品征收高额关税将严重抑制中国经济增长,从而削弱全球经济,惩罚地球上的每一个国家,包括美国。高关税还将增加美国消费者的成本,并危及许多依赖中国原材料和零部件的公司的繁荣和生存。

This new brand of war will also ensure that already sky-high defense expenditures will continue to rise, diverting funds from vital needs like education, health, infrastructure, and the environment. Meanwhile, preparations for a future war with China have already become the number one priority at the Pentagon, crowding out all other considerations. “While we’re focused on ongoing operations,” acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan reportedly told his senior staff on his first day in office this January, “remember China, China, China.”

这种新型战争还将确保本已天价的国防开支继续增长,将教育、卫生、基础设施和环境等关键需求的资金转移出去。与此同时,准备未来与中国的战争已经成为五角大楼的首要任务,排除了所有其他考虑。据报道,美国国防部代理秘书帕特里克·沙纳汉今年1月上任第一天对他的高级职员说:当我们专注于正在进行的行动时,记住中国,中国,中国。”

Perhaps the greatest victim of this ongoing conflict will be planet Earth itself and all the creatures, humans included, who inhabit it. As the world’s top two emitters of climate-altering greenhouse gases, the U.S. and China must work together to halt global warming or all of us are doomed to a hellish future. With a war under way, even a non-shooting one, the chance for such collaboration is essentially zero. The only way to save civilization is for the U.S. and China to declare peace and focus together on human salvation.

也许这场持续的冲突的最大受害者将是地球本身以及所有居住在地球上的生物,包括人类。作为全球两大温室气体排放国,美国和中国必须共同努力,阻止全球变暖,否则我们所有人都将面临地狱般的未来。由于战争正在进行,即使是一场非射击战争,这种合作的机会基本上为零。拯救文明的唯一途径是中美两国宣布和平,共同致力于拯救人类。
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